Week 6 Buy Low / Sell High

Last week, I told you to buy low on Steven Jackson, Carson Palmer, and Santonio Holmes. I also advised you to sell high on DeSean Jackson, Donovan McNabb, and Michael Turner. Carson Palmer had a multi-touchdown performance against a strong Cowboys defense. Santonio Holmes didn't find the endzone again, but managed 60 yards. Steven Jackson was on a bye which is why I advised you to try and pry him away from his owner at the best time. I still stand by selling high on Michael Turner; The tough match-ups are coming. McNabb had his worst game of the season, so if you were able to sell him before Sunday, kudos to you. DeSean Jackson also turned in the worst game of his season and I suspect there will be days like this to come, especially when Kevin Curtis comes back. I'd recommend holding on to McNabb for now, but still try and shop DeSean Jackson.

Buy Low:

Torry Holt (WR Rams): New head coach Jim Haslett told the media he plans to get Torry Holt more involved, especially early on in the game. He could get on a roll here very soon and St. Louis has a pretty easy schedule going forward, including Arizona, Seattle, and San Francisco in weeks 14-16. Bonus match-up: Week 17 against Atlanta, if your league is still going.

Chris Johnson (RB Titans): Like fellow rookie DeSean Jackson, Johnson also turned in his worst game as a pro. Unlike fellow rookie DeSean Jackson, I am buying Chris Johnson 100%. Lendale White is down to 2.6 yards per carry and only got 4 touches for a total of 4 yards (3 rushes, 1 reception). Johnson should see his workload increase going forward.

Adrian Peterson (RB Vikings): Another player who had their worst week of the season. Some Peterson owners may be discouraged after expecting a lot of points from him against a suspect Saints defense. His value won't get any lower unless he gets injured.


Sell High:

Hines Ward (WR Steelers): Three good games, two bad ones. I'll go on the record and say that the bad games will outnumber the good going forward.

Randy Moss (WR Patriots): A little blown coverage by San Francisco might be all you needed to unload the so-far worthless Randy Moss. He won't be more wide open on any other play this season.

DeAngelo Williams (RB Panthers): Won't see another 3 TD game for a while. His value is likely at its peak.

My Best and Worst Calls of Week 5

Sunday was interesting to say the least. I don't know of anyone who projected 2 touchdowns for Isaac Bruce. Kyle Orton led all QBs with 334 yards. DeAngelo Williams exploded for 3 touchdowns after being outproduced by Jonathan Stewart the first 4 weeks. I had some bad calls and some good calls, but overall I feel I had a decent week.


Bad Calls:
"Start Jon Kitna" - My worst call of the week. Chicago had been getting torched in the air and Kitna has had their number the last few meetings. Not this time, though. He went 8-of-16 for 74 yards before leaving the game with back spasms. In my defense, his day could have been saved in garbage time if he had remained in the game.

"Sit Randy Moss and Donald Driver" - Neither receiver had shown much prior to the week. Both scored long touchdowns.

Good Calls:
"Start Peyton Manning" - "Look for him to have more time to get the ball downfield to his receivers and put up multiple touchdowns against a soft Houston defense." 247 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"Sit Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch" - Hasselbeck had 105 yards and a pick before leaving the game due to injury and Branch had 31 yards before doing the same.

"Sit Jason Campbell" - My call of the week, I was dead-on with this one: "Campbell has been great thus far and looks to be grasping Zorn's west coast offense well. He faces a tough Philly defense this week, however, and they have the speed to cover the short routes that Campbell depends on to open up the long ball. Clinton Portis matches up better against the Eagles because he will break plenty of tackles against undersized defensive players." Santana Moss was blanketed all day and was only thrown to twice.


Some notes on Sunday:
Clinton Portis is a top-5 back. He's torn apart two of the best defenses in back-to-back contests. He's running very strong right now in an offense that has begun to find their identity and only injury will be able to slow him.

The Falcons will ride Michael Turner. He's 3rd in carries behind the aforementioned Clinton Portis and Chicago rookie Matt Forte. The falcons understand that their best shot at winning games is through Turner.

The Bengals and Colts can't defend the run. 250 yards and 3 TDs given up between them this week on the ground. Continue to start your running backs against them.

Week 5 Injury Updates

Here's the latest updates on injured players and their status for this weekend.

Quarterbacks:
Aaron Rodgers: Classic 50/50 game-time decision. He wants to play and has a favorable matchup if he can go.
Carson Palmer: Will start barring setback. Not an ideal matchup.
Donovan McNabb: Will start.
Ben Roethlisberger: Will start.

Running Backs:
Brian Westbrook: Went through full practice and appears set to start. Still a game-time decision, though, so keep an eye on him in the morning before inserting him into your lineup.
Lendale White: Will play. Likely to rush for 1.1 YPC again.
Willis McGahee: Apparently going to play, but won't get enough action to contribute to your team.
Chris Perry: Says injury was fabricated, will start. Matchup not favorable, however.

Wide Receivers:
Kevin Curtis: Won't play again. Looks like it'll be next week when he debuts.
Roy Williams: Will play. Has favorable matchup.
Santonio Holmes: Will play. Finally scored last week.
Justin Gage: Looking doubtful for Sunday.
Bernard Berrian: Late add to injury report. Monitor situation and replace him if you have any viable options.

Tight Ends:
L.J. Smith: Gametime Decision

Week 5 Player Rankings - Update

QB:

1. Tony Romo
2. Drew Brees
3. Philip Rivers
4. Peyton Manning
   
5. Jake Delhomme
6. Jay Cutler
7. Jon Kitna
8. Kurt Warner
9. Matt Schaub
10. Donovan Mcnabb
11. Jason Campbell
12. Carson Palmer (Appears to be starting)
13. Aaron Rodgers (50/50 Gametime decision)
14. Matt Hasselbeck
15. Eli Manning
16. Ben Roethlisberger
17. JT O'Sullivan
18. Kyle Orton
19. Brian Griese
20. Kerry Collins

RB:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Marshawn Lynch
3. Marion Barber
4. Steve Slaton
5. Joseph Addai
6. Adrian Peterson
   
7. Matt Forte
8. Brian Westbrook
9. Michael Turner
10. Clinton Portis
11. Frank Gore
12. Chris Johnson
    
13. Earnest Graham
14. Larry Johnson
15. Reggie Bush
16. Brandon Jacobs
17. Ryan Grant
18. Le'Ron McClain
    
19. Maurice Jones-Drew
20. Julius Jones
21. Jonathan Stewart
22. Edgerrin James
23. Fred Taylor
24. Chris Perry
25. Rudi Johnson
26. Sammy Morris
27. Deuce McAllister
28. Mewelde Moore
29. Darren Sproles
30. Felix Jones

WR:

1. Steve Smith
2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Terrell Owens
4. Reggie Wayne
5. Chris Chambers
6. Brandon Marshall
7. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
   
8. Lee Evans
9. DeSean Jackson
10. Calvin Johnson
11. Roy Williams
12. Lance Moore
13. Santana Moss
14. Greg Jennings
15. Andre Johnson
16. Bobby Engram
17. Justin Gage
18. Muhsin Muhammad
19. Roddy White
20. Robert Meachem
21. Vincent Jackson
22. Santonio Holmes
23. Chad Ocho Cinco
    
24. Patrick Crayton
25. Reggie Brown
26. Steve Breaston
    
27. Hines Ward
28. Randy Moss
29. Kevin Walter
30. Donald Driver
31. Deion Branch
32. Brandon Lloyd
33. Domenik Hixon
34. Wes Welker
35. Steve Smith (NYG)
    

TE:

1. Antonio Gates
2. Jason Witten
3. Chris Cooley
4. Tony Gonzalez
5. Dallas Clark
6. Anthony Fasano
7. Heath Miller
8. Kellen Winslow Jr.
   
9. Dante Rosario
10. Bo Scaife

Who to Start, Who to Sit - Week 5

Welcome to this week's edition of "Who to Start, Who to Sit", where I'll be analyzing the best and worst plays of the week.


To start off, I'll tell you what quarterbacks I'm high on for week 5.

Quarterback
Who to start:

Peyton Manning (at Houston): This is the week where Peyton Manning puts up his stats of old. He's getting 3 key starting offensive linemen back this week (LT Tony Ugoh, RT Ryan Diem, and C Jeff Saturday) and his knee should feel better with the week off. Look for him to have more time to get the ball downfield to his receivers and put up multiple touchdowns against a soft Houston defense.

Jon Kitna (vs Chicago): Kitna has has a rough beginning to the season. Luckily for him and his Lions teammates, their bye week came in week 4. WR Roy Williams has complained about the lack of spreading the field and how they would start every game with 2-wide and only open things up after their conservative playcalling got them into large deficits. It appears that the coaching staff heard his call, as their offensive coordinator said that they will start to use 3 and 4 wide receiver sets early in the game. This bodes well for Kitna and his 2 star receivers, Williams and Calvin Johnson. Add in that Rudi Johnson ran like it was 2004 in week 3 before the bye, and things are looking up for the so far stagnant offense of the Lions.

Jake Delhomme (vs Kansas City): Jake is showing no ill effects from the Tommy John surgery he underwent last season. Steve Smith has come back and added 166 yards and a TD in 2 game to an offense that was already doing well. Mushin Muhammad looks younger (I guess having Steve Smith on the other side of the field can do that for you) and Delhomme is reaping the benefits. Patrick Surtain and Brandon Flowers will have their hands more than full this week, and they will soon realize that Steve Smith is a lot harder to tackle than Brandon Marshall.

Who to sit:

Carson Palmer (at Dallas): It appears Palmer is set to start on Sunday, but he's going up against one of the more relentless pass rushes in the league. The Bengals offensive line hasn't been able to give Palmer enough time to get the ball downfield and the pressure is forcing him into a lot of mistakes. Chris Henry is back from suspension, but so far it doesn't look like he'll be activated for Sunday's contest. I like Palmer and the Bengals to bounce back in a big way, but it's not likely to happen this week. Elbow soreness and inflamation isn't anything to take lightly, just ask Jake Delhomme, so I'm not really sure why Palmer would play in a game that they're virtually guaranteed to lose. Go with a safer option this week.

Matt Hasselbeck (at New York Giants): Matt Hasselbeck gets his 2 best receivers back this week, but it's still not a good week to play Hasselbeck. Thought there is some scuttlebutt about how explosive Deion Branch looks, the fact is he's coming off of major knee surgery, making it unlikely that they will let him completely loose. The matchup isn't going to be kind to Hass this week. Keep him on the pine for another week.

Jason Campbell (at Philadelphia): Campbell has been great thus far and looks to be grasping Zorn's west coast offense well. He faces a tough Philly defense this week, however, and they have the speed to cover the short routes that Campbell depends on to open up the long ball. Clinton Portis matches up better against the Eagles because he will break plenty of tackles against undersized defensive players. Both of Campbell's TDs came at the goal line last week and that won't happen again if they want to keep Portis happy.


Running Back
Start:

Marshawn Lynch (at Arizona): Lynch had a quiet game last week in a good matchup, but he gets to try again against another weak defense. Despite not scoring last week, he's still tied for 2nd most rushing TDs, and he'll score at least one this week.

Steve Slaton (vs. Indianapolis): The Texans have found their running back, at least for now. Indianapolis boasts one of the worst run defenses and until Bob Sanders comes back, which won't be for a while, they will continue to yield large totals to opposing running backs.

Reggie Bush (vs. Minnesota): Minnesota does have a good run defense, but they are vulnerable to guys that can push the ball to the outside, as Chris Johnson was able to do last week against them. Bush's part in the passing game should also play into his hand this week. He should have a nice day.

Sit:

Julius Jones (at New York Giants): Julius Jones has been good thus far, but he faces his first real test this week against a defense that doesn't seem to know they lost their best 2 players. He should do ok, but he won't have stats close to what he's been putting up, as the Seahawks struggle to move the ball on Sunday.

Ryan Grant (vs. Atlanta): I know the matchup is good, but the last great matchup he had, against the Lions, he only rushed for 20 yards(!) on 15 carries(!). He doesn't look as explosive as he did last year.

Rudi Johnson (vs. Chicago): Rudi looked great 2 weeks ago, but he's still going to split carries with Kevin Smith. Chicago's weakness is in the air, not on the ground, so Rudi shouldn't see more than 10 touches.

Wide Receiver
Start:

Muhsin Muhammad (vs. Kansas City): Moose is back! Patrick Surtain will need loads of help covering Steve Smith this sunday, which will leave Moose in consistent man coverage with Brandon Flowers, who won't be enough to keep Muhsin from scoring.

Lee Evans (at Arizona): Laveranues Coles scored 3 TDs against Arizona last week and Jericho Cotchery scored 2. Need I say more?

Bobby Engram (at New York Giants): Engram is Matt Hasselbeck's most reliable receiver right now and unlike Deion Branch, Engram's injury wasn't to his knee. Hasselbeck will look his way often as Seattle will need to throw to stay in this game.

Sit:

Randy Moss (at San Francisco): Moss won't be a reliable starting option until the Patriots fix their QB situation. The matchup isn't good, either.

Donald Driver (vs. Atlanta): Driver hasn't been that good this year, and Rodgers is a gametime decision.

Deion Branch (at New York Giants): Branch is back, but they might limit his snaps to give his knee a chance to ease back into 100% throttle. Only play him if you have nobody else.

Play Your QBs Against These Teams

Here are the worst teams when it comes to defending quarterbacks:

St. Louis Rams (1,043 yds/8 TDs/1 INT): The Rams might own the worst defense in the NFL, so it's no surprise that QBs have success against the Rams. The key statistic, though, is that QBs have done it against the Rams with the 11th least pass attempts. If St. Louis's offense picks it up, teams will have to throw on them more, making them even worse against QB's. In summation, play any QB against the Rams, because anyone can score on them.

Denver Broncos (1,138 yds/7 TDs/1 INT): Denver is a team that will live by their offense and die by their defense. The days of Champ Bailey being the best corner in football are over. Another all-around horrible defense. With the potency of their offense, not many teams will be able to abandon the pass against them.

New York Jets (1,138 yds/7 TDs/5 INT): The Jets are a defense that are so-so against the run, so teams are more apt to force the pass against them. This sweetens the already gaudy numbers that they have given up in the air. With Favre gaining rapport with his new offense, look for teams to get into shootouts with the Jets.

Detroit Lions (678 yds/6 TDs/0 INT): Yes, the yards are low, but don't be fooled. This team already had their bye, so these are 3 week numbers, meaning they've given up 220+ yards and 2 passing TDs a game. The best part is so far they've only played San Francisco, Atlanta, and Green Bay and only one of those teams has a good passing game. Look for continued QB success against this squad.

Notice:

I will field all start/sit, add/drop, and trade questions. Feel free to ask.